AGP Executive Report

Vietnam Economy Watch: Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.39% y/y in Q2 2026, with industry and construction leading at 10.51% and services up 7.87%, while H1 GDP rose 8.18% y/y—signaling broad-based momentum despite global headwinds. Anti-Smuggling & Market Control: Vietnam’s MoIT reported nearly 20,000 smuggling, trade fraud and counterfeit cases handled in H1 2026, with Steering Committee 389 inspecting 23,715 cases and generating 330bn VND for the state budget through fines, illicit gains and confiscations. Energy & Maritime Industry: Vietnam’s offshore wind is gaining traction as a green marine-economy driver, with Resolution 36-NQ/TW pointing to a wider industrial ecosystem from surveys and engineering to steel, offshore construction, ports, logistics and O&M. Aviation Connectivity: Da Lat’s Lien Khuong airport will reopen Aug 19, with 91 weekly return flights resuming from Vietjet and Vietnam Airlines across major cities. Digital Infrastructure: NEC will supply the I-2SEA submarine cable linking India–Malaysia–Singapore, targeting service in 2029 to boost AI and cloud bandwidth and route resilience. Trade & Compliance: USTR hearings next week will review forced-labour import restrictions across 60 economies, with Vietnam among those submitting views. Agriculture & Climate Risk: Offshore wind and climate resilience themes also show up in food policy—Vietnam’s growth backdrop comes as regional agriculture faces El Niño-linked pressure and seed strategy shifts.

Vietnam Macro: Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.18% in H1, with industry and construction up 9.81% and services up 8.09%, while the country targets 11.9% growth in H2 to hit its 2026 goal. Inflation Watch: CPI rose 4.38% in H1; June CPI eased 0.39% month-on-month as cheaper fuel helped cool price pressures. Industrial Momentum: Industrial production jumped 10.8% in H1, the fastest pace since 2019, led by manufacturing and processing (+11.4%). Fintech & Investment: Blackstone, CVC Capital Partners and MUFG are among bidders for a stake in Vietnam’s MoMo ahead of a partial sale process that could value the firm at over $2bn. Trade & Sourcing: EFTA and Vietnam concluded comprehensive FTA negotiations, aiming to cut barriers and improve market access for goods and services, with apparel and footwear highlighted. Energy for Industry: TotalEnergies ENEOS commissioned a nearly 28 MWp rooftop solar PV system at Samsung Electronics’ HCMC complex under Vietnam’s DPPA framework, supplying about 26% of the site’s electricity. Real Estate: Huong Viet Properties outlined a high-rise market outlook driven by infrastructure, shifting buyer preferences toward real value, and developer consolidation. Logistics/Ports: PSA and LHF plan to jointly develop four deep-sea container berths in north Vietnam, reinforcing capacity for regional trade flows.

Aviation & Connectivity: Vietnam’s carriers have filed initial plans for Ho Chi Minh City’s Long Thanh trial operations, with VietJetAir proposing early December 2026 domestic flying and later scaling up narrowbody fleets plus first international routes in the airport’s initial phase, while Vietnam Airlines plans to shift several international routes from HCMC to Long Thanh. Manufacturing & Supply Chain: East West Manufacturing is buying Vexos to expand engineering and high-mix electronics manufacturing capacity, including regulated work for medical, aerospace and AI data centers, with added footprint across the US, Canada, Mexico, China and Vietnam. Consumer & Retail: Sendo will shut down its online grocery platform Sendo Farm on July 10 as it restructures, with refunds for unused memberships and wallet balances. Automotive Demand: Toyota Vietnam reported June sales up 12% month-on-month, driven by hybrid deliveries surging 89%, signaling continued shift toward fuel-efficient models. Agri-Exports & Trade: Vietnam’s agriculture push for higher-value, low-carbon fruit and vegetable exports to China is increasingly centered on quality, traceability and deeper processing to stabilize market access. Real Estate: Malaysia is offering a 10% home purchase discount during AREC 2026 to ease deposit burdens and support affordable housing supply.

World Bank Income Reclassifications: The World Bank upgraded Vietnam to upper-middle-income status alongside the Philippines and Sri Lanka, signaling stronger growth momentum and likely new investor expectations. Digital Payments & Cross-Border Trade: Vietnam and Singapore launched a cross-border QR payment service via NAPAS, enabling cashless payments across Vietnam with real-time currency conversion for visitors. Port & Heavy Industry: HD Hyundai Eco Vina won a contract to supply two rail mounted quay cranes for Vietnam’s international terminal, underlining Vietnam’s role in global port equipment supply chains. Local Supplier Upgrading: Bắc Ninh and Samsung renewed a five-year partnership to push digital transformation, smart manufacturing, and skills for domestic suppliers. Green Finance for Agriculture: The Green Climate Fund approved $50m for Mekong Capital’s MERF, targeting climate-resilient agribusiness and value-chain investments in the lower Mekong. Energy Storage Market Signals: A Wood Mackenzie report says Chinese firms captured 76% of the global BESS integrator market in 2025, with competition shifting toward software, grid-forming tech, and financing support. Supply Chain Integrity: An EIA report alleges illegal timber from Cambodia and Laos still enters Vietnam through falsified paperwork and quota manipulation, urging tighter verification and oversight. FDI & Semiconductor Push: Vietnam’s semiconductor ecosystem is expanding, but experts warn that prototype manufacturing infrastructure and shared “tape-out” capacity remain bottlenecks for moving up the value chain.

Energy & Renewables: Ca Mau kicked off a 240-million-USD, 100MW offshore wind project in the Khai Long–Ca Mau tourism area, targeting first power in May 2028 and about 253GWh clean electricity annually. Agri-exports & Trade Facilitation: Vietnam is pushing for faster “green lane” customs clearance and tighter traceability to keep fruit and vegetable exports to China growing, after China tightened production-code and packaging approvals. Logistics & Ports: Hai Phong reported 96 million tonnes of cargo throughput in H1 2026, up 11.4% y/y, citing digital upgrades and the deep-water Lach Huyen port complex to attract larger container ships. Manufacturing Pulse: Asia’s factory activity stayed resilient in June as AI demand offset war-driven cost pressures, while Vietnam’s broader industrial momentum remains supported by policy and investment signals. Policy & Climate Markets: Vietnam launched a pilot carbon market covering 51 cement plants, aiming to build a domestic carbon trading exchange pathway for net-zero transition. Business & Finance: UOB Vietnam broke ground on a US$450 million HQ in HCMC’s financial center, underscoring continued financial-services investment in next-gen growth areas.

HCMC Infrastructure Push: Ho Chi Minh City broke ground on eight major projects worth about $9.6bn, using public investment, PPPs and private capital to speed up innovation and sustainable growth. Digital & AI for Industry: AWS launched its Hanoi Local Zone to cut latency for Vietnam’s AI and real-time factory, telecom and finance use cases, as Vietnam targets rapid digital-economy scaling. Carbon Market Moves: Vietnam launched a pilot carbon market covering 51 cement plants, aiming to advance net-zero planning and create trading momentum. Energy Transition Tech: Rosatom and Petrovietnam agreed to set up a modern additive technologies centre in Vietnam using 3D printing to reduce downtime and import dependence for oil & gas equipment. Manufacturing Momentum: Vietnam’s manufacturing stayed in expansion in June (PMI 51.8), driven by improving new orders and output. Seafood Exports: VASEP reported seafood exports near $1.1bn in June (+21% y/y), with shrimp leading and compliance costs rising from US trade remedies and traceability rules. Logistics Pressure: Dimerco’s July freight report flags tight air capacity across Asia-Pacific as AI-driven volumes keep hubs near full. Aviation & Connectivity: Vietnam’s aviation ecosystem also gets a boost as the country prepares new commercial aviation gateway operations later in 2026.

Agri Trade & Supply Chains: A Philippine ube “purple rush” is colliding with weaker local output, with production falling from about 15,000 tons (2021) to 12,483 tons (2025), pushing imports of ube products from Vietnam and prompting calls for a House probe into competitiveness and farmer support. Digital Trust for Industry: Frost & Sullivan says Vietnam and Laos are moving toward digital trust infrastructure to enable wider use of digital signatures for cross-border trade, shifting from standalone e-signatures to broader identity and secure data-sharing platforms. Energy & Infrastructure Finance: Vietnam is launching a domestic carbon trading exchange as part of its net-zero push, while regional energy projects keep rolling—ADB approved a Cambodia battery storage project and consortium efforts aim to accelerate Ha Tinh’s Vung Ang III LNG plant. Manufacturing & Vietnam’s Role in “China+1”: A report argues that moving final assembly to Vietnam often leaves supply chains dependent on China for key parts, even as trade flows shift toward Southeast Asia. Tourism & Services: Phu Quoc ranks No. 2 in Asia-Pacific for islands in Travel + Leisure’s 2026 awards, reinforcing Vietnam’s push to attract higher-spending travelers. Aviation: VietJet has applied for Australian regulatory approval to start domestic flights, potentially reshaping the market with a low-cost push.

Carbon Markets: Vietnam officially launched its domestic carbon exchange at the Hanoi Stock Exchange, aiming to speed up net-zero efforts and create a market-based way for firms in thermal power, steel and cement to buy/sell emission allowances. FDI & Industrial Policy: Party General Secretary/President To Lam urged a shift toward outcome-based support to deepen Vietnam’s foreign-invested sector, strengthen domestic industrial ecosystems, and help local firms move up value chains. Energy Projects: A consortium behind the $2bn Vung Ang III LNG plant asked Ha Tinh to speed land and sea procedures, plus grid connection support, as it targets early project acceleration. Trade & Supply Chains: Oxford Economics said the Philippines has captured “virtually none” of China+1 manufacturing diversification, while Vietnam is the clearest winner across exports like textiles, footwear and electronics parts. High-tech Agriculture: C.P. Vietnam was named among the Top 5 most innovative enterprises in high-tech agriculture, highlighting innovation across its feed-farm-food chain. Logistics Demand: Air cargo carriers are upbeat on China-linked demand and are adding capacity and routes, including more flights to Vietnam. Regional Investment Signals: JETRO reported 56.9% of Japanese firms in Vietnam plan to expand in 1–2 years, with Hanoi positioned to attract higher-tech capital. Defense Industry: Vietnam and the UAE signed an MoU on defence industry cooperation, opening more room for industrial collaboration. Solar & Power Buildout: Dak Lak approved 25 investment ventures worth $1.54bn, including major solar and wind projects and new industrial park plans.

Circular Textiles: Vietnam invited H&M and Syre to help shape rules for textile-to-textile recycling, with Syre already positioning Vietnam as a polyester recycling base in Binh Dinh. Green Finance: GuarantCo backed Vietnam’s first certified commercial-and-industrial green solar bond by Verdant Energy, guaranteeing about VND 792bn to fund 58MW of solar projects. Food Security Policy: A new long-term food security policy push argues for market-enhancing measures, targeted government action where markets fail, and a whole-of-society approach beyond just central and local authorities. Tourism Sustainability: Agoda and GSTC marked the first anniversary of the Sustainable Tourism Academy, topping 3,000 registered users and expanding training reach across Vietnam and other regional markets. Vietnam Aviation Link: Reports say Vietjet is seeking regulatory approval for an Australian domestic airline venture, with up to seven daily return flights planned from Sydney. Logistics/Trade Risk: Mekong countries are on alert for transboundary haze as heat and El Niño raise the risk of forest and peatland fires, threatening agriculture and public health.

Hanoi Investment Push: Hanoi announced 276 priority investment projects, aiming to turn the city’s master-plan vision into concrete development momentum. High-Tech Agriculture: Ho Chi Minh City will set up seven high-tech agricultural zones (1,727 hectares total) to build R&D centres and attract modern-agriculture investors. Shrimp Cost Squeeze: Vietnam’s shrimp farmers face rising feed, fuel and chemical costs while farmgate prices keep falling; the government is urging longer supply agreements and production adjustments. Textiles Under Order Risk: SSI Research flags a widening gap between shipped exports and orders still to be locked in, with tariff uncertainty adding pressure on Vietnam’s textile start orders heading into Q4. Water Sector Spotlight: Vietnam Water Week returns to Hanoi (Sept 16–18) with expanded space and record international participation, spotlighting smart water, water-loss reduction and digital operations. Heat & Social Protection: Experts warn policy gaps leave outdoor workers exposed to worsening heatwaves, creating income loss and health risks. Robotic Surgery Network: Vinmec launched a nationwide robotic surgery ecosystem linking multiple hospitals via a central coordination hub. Banking Outlook: SSI Research says liquidity pressure and asset-quality concerns will shape Vietnam banks’ second-half 2026 outlook.

Infrastructure & Energy Transition: The ADB approved up to $30 million equity for a regional infrastructure fund (Seraya Partners Fund II) backing energy transition and digital infrastructure across the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Mekong/Maritime & Trade Flows: ReCAAP ISC and the Philippine Coast Guard held a senior meeting with Vietnam and other focal points to strengthen port security and cooperation against piracy and sea robbery. Housing Transparency: Vietnam will launch a national housing and real estate market information system on July 1, assigning each property a permanent identification code to improve transparency and curb speculation. Agri & Food Prices: Vietnam rice export prices climbed as supply tightened and El Niño-linked weather risks grew; in parallel, African port congestion is weighing on Indian white rice demand. Cross-border Tourism: Malaysia and Vietnam agreed to deepen cooperation on medical and halal tourism. Vietnam–Fruit Trade: Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable imports rose 31% in the first five months, with China the biggest supplier. SME Digital Push (Regional): Bangladesh’s SME growth is being held back by weak data systems, while calls grow for faster adoption of digital tech and AI. Defense/Geopolitics: The Philippines’ DND hit back at China’s remarks on the 2016 arbitral ruling, escalating maritime dispute rhetoric.

Carbon Markets: Vietnam is set to launch its first domestic carbon exchange on June 29, with the State Securities Commission saying the legal framework, trading rules, IT infrastructure and settlement mechanisms are ready, while pilot emission quotas have been allocated to 110 facilities. Urban Services & Logistics: Ho Chi Minh City is pushing to become a value-added regional services hub, banking on its expanded footprint after the administrative merger and its deep-water port network, including Cai Mep–Thi Vai. Tourism & Culture Links: Malaysia and Vietnam agreed to deepen cooperation in tourism and culture, including medical and halal tourism, and to step up joint promotion and industry partnerships. Transport Regulation: The Philippines’ LTFRB suspended one electric taxi unit for 30 days after a driver was linked to a viral robbery prank, signaling tougher enforcement on passenger safety. Industry Compliance: Vietnam’s Vespa supply chain note: the scooter is made in Italy, Vietnam and India, underscoring Vietnam’s role in regional manufacturing networks. Trade & Risk Context: Global trade is being “transformed” rather than ended, the IMF chief economist said, as tariffs and wars reshape bilateral flows.

Carbon Markets: Việt Nam is set to launch its first domestic carbon exchange on June 29, with the legal framework, trading rules, IT infrastructure, and settlement mechanisms already in place, and pilot greenhouse gas quotas allocated to 110 facilities. Transport Delivery: Prime Minister Le Minh Hung urged strict adherence to schedules for major national transport projects, saying deadlines shouldn’t slip without objective reasons, as site clearance, materials and labour remain key bottlenecks. High-Tech Investment: Deputy PM Hồ Quốc Dũng encouraged US firms to expand into high-tech sectors, highlighting Coherent’s work in optical components, semiconductor materials and laser solutions. Urban Development: Lotte and Phat Dat signed to co-develop the Lotte Eco Smart City Thủ Thiêm project, aiming for international standards in HCM City’s core urban expansion. Finance & Payments: SSI, VietinBank and Visa launched ProfitX, a virtual international debit card that merges investment incentives with spending on one digital platform. Housing Policy: The Ministry of Construction is finalising a rental housing policy package for submission to the National Assembly in October, positioning long-term rentals as a market pillar. Energy Security: JICA will support a feasibility study on Việt Nam’s strategic petroleum reserve system, focusing on roles for government and private players. Tourism Real Estate: A sector conference says tourism property is shifting toward cash-flow performance over rapid expansion and leverage as investor confidence and financing costs remain uneven.

Healthcare & Tech: Vinmec launched Vietnam’s first integrated high-tech robotic surgery network, linking multiple robotic platforms across hospitals via a multi-connected ecosystem to expand access nationwide. Semiconductors & Industry Policy: Vietnam launched a national multi-project wafer coordination centre to speed chip prototyping, cut development costs, and strengthen the country’s semiconductor supply-chain role. Science, Innovation & Digital Transformation: The Prime Minister pushed Resolution 57-NQ/TW implementation with faster research-to-market commercialization, removing institutional barriers and improving funding and infrastructure access for tech and digital projects. Trade & Logistics Infrastructure: Vietnam and the US signed an MoU for real-time customs data exchange to boost transparency and streamline cross-border processes. IP Enforcement: Vietnam reiterated its continuous, persistent intellectual property enforcement push, responding to US Special 301 concerns and highlighting legal backlog processing and 2026 directives. Energy & Clean Tech (Regional): Hero Future Energies inaugurated its new Aerocity HQ in India as it scales clean energy delivery across industrial, utility and commercial customers. Aviation & Mobility: Air India signaled it may restore some flight cuts if West Asia security stabilizes and fuel prices ease. Urban Development & Construction: Hanoi plans to scrap paper monthly bus passes from July 1, aiming to modernize public transport administration.

Vietnam Investment Push: Hanoi will hold an Investment Promotion Conference 2026 on June 29 alongside a 100-year master plan, unveiling new mechanisms and a digital investment project management platform to speed up approvals and improve transparency. Urban & Transport Planning: The city is also moving ahead with major rail and metro projects, while Ho Chi Minh City plans new tourism transport links. Trade & Customs Digitalization: Vietnam and the US signed an MoU for real-time customs data exchange to boost transparency and trade facilitation. Green Finance & Energy: GuarantCo backed Vietnam’s first C&I solar green bond by Verdant Energy, as Vietnam accelerates biofuel and broader green-economy standards. Industry & Logistics: Vietnam is positioning itself as a logistics growth hub, while firms expand services and routes to support manufacturing and exports. Regional Policy Signals: CPTPP members begin preliminary talks to add Indonesia, the Philippines and UAE, adding momentum to Asia-Pacific trade liberalisation.

Vietnam–US Trade Tech: Vietnam Customs and US Customs signed an MoU to exchange electronic cargo manifest and shipment data in real time to boost risk management, supply-chain transparency, and crack down on fraud and illegal transshipment. Green Finance for Industry: GuarantCo backed Vietnam’s first certified commercial-and-industrial (C&I) solar green bond by Verdant Energy, supporting 58MW of rooftop solar with a 15-year guarantee. Urban Development Deal: Lotte Group and Phat Dat signed for Lotte Eco Smart City Thu Thiem in HCMC (VND60tn), splitting residential and commercial tower development roles. Energy Transition Push: Vietnam accelerates transport biofuels amid oil-price pressure and trade headwinds, while also facing rising scrutiny over feasibility. AI and Workforce: Microsoft’s Work Trend Index says Vietnamese workers are adopting AI faster than many organizations around them, shifting from generating answers to refining and owning outputs. Industrial Policy & Disbursement: Vietnam issued a directive to speed up ODA and concessional-loan disbursement, targeting higher efficiency as current rates lag. Food & Beverage Expansion: A Vietnamese-owned firm AP Beverage Trading Production began bottled non-alcoholic beverage manufacturing in Dong Nai, aiming for 500,000 sales points by 2030.